PolymarketOpen

Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in November 2026?

No82%
Yes19%

Price checked at

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24h volume$80
7d volume$240
30d volume$240
Liquidity$12.1K
Spread2%
ResolvesDec 1, 2026in 30 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 29, 10:12 PMOct 30, 07:36 PMOct 31, 04:59 PMNov 1, 02:22 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during November 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in November 2026?Polymarket74% NoOpen
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in November 2026?Polymarket69% NoOpen
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in November 2026?Polymarket83% NoOpen
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?Polymarket90% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Nov 1, 03:05 PM UTC