Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 98% Yes | Open |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027? | Polymarket | 98% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Nov 1, 02:47 PM UTC