Commercial property prices down >20% YoY as of Oct 2027?: Will the 12-month percentage change in Green Street’s U.S. All-Property Commercial Property Price Index for October 2027 be below -20%?

If the first-published 12-month percentage change in Green Street’s U.S. All-Property Commercial Property Price Index for October 2027 is below -20%, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the 12-month percentage change in the U.S. All-Property Commercial Property Price Index reported by Green Street for October 2027, comparing October 2027 with October 2026. The published 12-month percentage change is used directly, at the precision reported in the release’s headline or accompanying narrative. No percentage change is independently calculated from index levels, and no additional rounding is applied. “Below −20%” means strictly less than −20%; a reported change of exactly −20.0% resolves No. The first published October 2027 figure is used, including if designated preliminary or estimated. Subsequent corrections and revisions are ignored. Only the October 2027 observation determines the outcome. A decline exceeding 20% in an earlier month does not independently satisfy the condition. Publication delays do not change the observation month; missing or discontinued data are handled under the governing contract’s provisions.