Oliver Bearman is awarded Pole Position

No99%
Oliver Bearman1%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$94
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 25, 2026in 6 hours

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 19Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Oliver Bearman set the fastest valid qualifying lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 that determines the starting grid for the main race at the 2026 United States Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, Pole Position is awarded to the driver who records the fastest official lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) of the Grand Prix, as determined by the FIA’s published classification. If Qualifying does not progress to Q3 (e.g., weather, red flags, or format changes), Pole Position will be awarded based on FIA’s official qualifying results for that event. Pole Position for this market is determined exclusively by the official "Final Qualifying Classification" and is not impacted by the final starting grid; any subsequent grid penalties or starting-order adjustments do not change who is deemed to have achieved Pole Position. Sprint race qualifying sessions are not considered for this market. If the qualifying session is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the qualifying session is cancelled, moved to a different circuit, or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket and Kalshi use the same underlying fact pattern but differ in fine print on settlement timing and fallback rules. Kalshi adds explicit treatment of Q3 absence, grid penalties, sprint sessions, and postponement/cancellation; these do not change the question asked.
  • MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Qualifying Session Pole Position: Oliver Bearman

    This market will settle to Yes if Oliver Bearman wins pole position at the MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Pole position is awarded to the driver who records the fastest official lap time in the qualifying session (Q3), scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 5:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If no qualifying session is held, the market will settle to Yes if the listed driver is declared by the governing body to start the race in pole position. If the listed driver is replaced by a reserve or substitute driver between market creation and race start, the market will remain open and reference the reserve or substitute driver. If the race is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from FIA.

    read Oct 24, 08:19 AM UTC

  • Kalshithis market

    Oliver Bearman is awarded Pole Position

    If Oliver Bearman set the fastest valid qualifying lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 that determines the starting grid for the main race at the 2026 United States Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, Pole Position is awarded to the driver who records the fastest official lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) of the Grand Prix, as determined by the FIA’s published classification. If Qualifying does not progress to Q3 (e.g., weather, red flags, or format changes), Pole Position will be awarded based on FIA’s official qualifying results for that event. Pole Position for this market is determined exclusively by the official "Final Qualifying Classification" and is not impacted by the final starting grid; any subsequent grid penalties or starting-order adjustments do not change who is deemed to have achieved Pole Position. Sprint race qualifying sessions are not considered for this market. If the qualifying session is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the qualifying session is cancelled, moved to a different circuit, or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Charles Leclerc is awarded Pole PositionKalshi69% NoOpen
Andrea Kimi Antonelli is awarded Pole PositionKalshi85% NoOpen
Max Verstappen is awarded Pole PositionKalshi63% NoOpen
Lewis Hamilton is awarded Pole PositionKalshi81% NoOpen
George Russell is awarded Pole PositionKalshi96% NoOpen
Oscar Piastri is awarded Pole PositionKalshi98% NoOpen
Lando Norris is awarded Pole PositionKalshi96% NoOpen
Isack Hadjar is awarded Pole PositionKalshi99% NoOpen
Pierre Gasly is awarded Pole PositionKalshi99% NoOpen
Fernando Alonso is awarded Pole PositionKalshi99% NoOpen
Alexander Albon is awarded Pole PositionKalshi99% NoOpen
Liam Lawson is awarded Pole PositionKalshi99% NoOpen
Arvid Lindblad is awarded Pole PositionKalshi99% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders—
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Oct 24, 08:35 PM UTC