Lando Norris is awarded Pole Position

No92%
Lando Norris8%

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24h volume$6.8K
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread1%
ResolvesOct 25, 2026in 11 hours

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 19Oct 21Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Lando Norris set the fastest valid qualifying lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 that determines the starting grid for the main race at the 2026 United States Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, Pole Position is awarded to the driver who records the fastest official lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) of the Grand Prix, as determined by the FIA’s published classification. If Qualifying does not progress to Q3 (e.g., weather, red flags, or format changes), Pole Position will be awarded based on FIA’s official qualifying results for that event. Pole Position for this market is determined exclusively by the official "Final Qualifying Classification" and is not impacted by the final starting grid; any subsequent grid penalties or starting-order adjustments do not change who is deemed to have achieved Pole Position. Sprint race qualifying sessions are not considered for this market. If the qualifying session is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the qualifying session is cancelled, moved to a different circuit, or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. They use the same underlying FIA qualifying result for pole position, though Kalshi uses a different resolve time and includes a fair-price fallback if qualifying is cancelled or not started within 48 hours. Polymarket adds a substitute-driver clause and a different no-session fallback, but these are material only to settlement mechanics, not the question asked.
  • Kalshithis market

    Lando Norris is awarded Pole Position

    If Lando Norris set the fastest valid qualifying lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 that determines the starting grid for the main race at the 2026 United States Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, Pole Position is awarded to the driver who records the fastest official lap time in the Qualifying session (Q3) of the Grand Prix, as determined by the FIA’s published classification. If Qualifying does not progress to Q3 (e.g., weather, red flags, or format changes), Pole Position will be awarded based on FIA’s official qualifying results for that event. Pole Position for this market is determined exclusively by the official "Final Qualifying Classification" and is not impacted by the final starting grid; any subsequent grid penalties or starting-order adjustments do not change who is deemed to have achieved Pole Position. Sprint race qualifying sessions are not considered for this market. If the qualifying session is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the qualifying session is cancelled, moved to a different circuit, or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

  • MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Qualifying Session Pole Position: Lando Norris

    This market will settle to Yes if Lando Norris wins pole position at the MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). Pole position is awarded to the driver who records the fastest official lap time in the qualifying session (Q3), scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 5:00PM ET (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If no qualifying session is held, the market will settle to Yes if the listed driver is declared by the governing body to start the race in pole position. If the listed driver is replaced by a reserve or substitute driver between market creation and race start, the market will remain open and reference the reserve or substitute driver. If the race is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from FIA.

    read Oct 24, 08:19 AM UTC

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As of Oct 24, 04:11 PM UTC