Will parties below the electoral threshold receive less than 4% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined share of the vote received by lists that do not pass the electoral threshold in the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of valid votes cast for lists that are not allocated any seats due to falling below the electoral threshold divided by the total number of valid votes cast. (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.