California wins by over 4.5 points

No94%
California wins by over 4.5 points6%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesOct 24, 2026in 15 hours

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If California wins by more than 4.5 points in the California vs SMU college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket cites NCAA as the resolution source and says a canceled game resolves 50-50, while Kalshi uses the official final result and says an unstarted game after 48 hours resolves to fair price. Those settlement differences do not change the question being priced.
  • California vs SMU: spread: California (-4.5)

    In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "California" if California win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "SMU". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

  • Kalshithis market

    California wins by over 4.5 points

    If California wins by more than 4.5 points in the California vs SMU college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
SMU wins by over 17.5 pointsKalshi54% SMU wins by over 17.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 20.5 pointsKalshi53% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 21.5 pointsKalshi58% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 14.5 pointsKalshi60% SMU wins by over 14.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 13.5 pointsKalshi65% SMU wins by over 13.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 23.5 pointsKalshi61% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 7.5 pointsKalshi76% SMU wins by over 7.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 6.5 pointsKalshi80% SMU wins by over 6.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 16.5 pointsKalshi57% SMU wins by over 16.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 30.5 pointsKalshi76% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 9.5 pointsKalshi73% SMU wins by over 9.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 10.5 pointsKalshi67% SMU wins by over 10.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 38.5 pointsKalshi90% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 24.5 pointsKalshi65% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 4.5 pointsKalshi84% SMU wins by over 4.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 5.5 pointsKalshi83% SMU wins by over 5.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi87% SMU wins by over 3.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 35.5 pointsKalshi87% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 33.5 pointsKalshi81% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 27.5 pointsKalshi71% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 2.5 pointsKalshi90% SMU wins by over 2.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi91% SMU wins by over 1.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 11.5 pointsKalshi68% SMU wins by over 11.5 pointsOpen
California wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi94% NoOpen
California wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi91% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 04:29 AM UTC