SMU wins by over 4.5 points

SMU wins by over 4.5 points84%
No16%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread3%
ResolvesOct 24, 2026in 17 hours

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If SMU wins by more than 4.5 points in the California vs SMU college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves on the official final result if the game starts within 48 hours of the scheduled time, otherwise to fair price; Polymarket stays open until completion and uses a 50-50 settlement if canceled; Novig voids to fair market value under its rulebook. These are material settlement-rule differences only, not different questions.
  • Kalshithis market

    SMU wins by over 4.5 points

    If SMU wins by more than 4.5 points in the California vs SMU college football game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

  • California vs SMU: spread: SMU (-4.5)

    In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "SMU" if SMU win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "California". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

  • SMU vs California: spread: SMU (-4.5)

    Novig NCAAF spread market on SMU vs California, scheduled 2026-10-24 16:00 UTC. Sides: SMU -4.5 / CAL +4.5. A void settles every outcome at its fair market value, not a refund. The exchange's rulebook governs settlement.

    read Oct 24, 12:20 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
SMU wins by over 17.5 pointsKalshi53% SMU wins by over 17.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 20.5 pointsKalshi54% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 21.5 pointsKalshi58% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 14.5 pointsKalshi61% SMU wins by over 14.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 13.5 pointsKalshi65% SMU wins by over 13.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 23.5 pointsKalshi61% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 7.5 pointsKalshi76% SMU wins by over 7.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 6.5 pointsKalshi80% SMU wins by over 6.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 16.5 pointsKalshi58% SMU wins by over 16.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 30.5 pointsKalshi76% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 9.5 pointsKalshi73% SMU wins by over 9.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 10.5 pointsKalshi67% SMU wins by over 10.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 38.5 pointsKalshi90% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 24.5 pointsKalshi65% NoOpen
California wins by over 4.5 pointsKalshi94% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 5.5 pointsKalshi83% SMU wins by over 5.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi87% SMU wins by over 3.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 35.5 pointsKalshi87% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 33.5 pointsKalshi82% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 27.5 pointsKalshi71% NoOpen
SMU wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi91% SMU wins by over 1.5 pointsOpen
SMU wins by over 11.5 pointsKalshi67% SMU wins by over 11.5 pointsOpen
California wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi94% NoOpen
California wins by over 2.5 pointsKalshi92% NoOpen
California wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi91% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 01:56 AM UTC