United States Grand Prix Winner: Max Verstappen

No55%
Yes46%

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Spread9%
ResolvesOct 27, 2026in 3 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 24, 04:11 AMOct 24, 08:11 AMOct 24, 12:10 PMOct 24, 04:09 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Oct 24 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market resolves to Yes if Max Verstappen is officially declared the winner of the Formula 1 Grand Prix originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (FIA), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a driver forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. They differ only in settlement details: Polymarket cites FIA and a two-day rescheduling rule, while Gemini lists FIA/other source agencies and different fallback handling. Both still resolve on whether Max Verstappen wins the 2026 United States Grand Prix.
  • MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix Winner: Max Verstappen

    This market will settle to Yes if Max Verstappen wins the MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix scheduled for October 25, 2026 (as of the listing of the event's first instrument). If the listed driver is replaced by a reserve or substitute driver between market creation and race start, the market will remain open and reference the reserve or substitute driver. If the race is delayed, postponed, suspended or otherwise rescheduled to a date and time not within two days of the originally scheduled date and time, the market will settle to the last fair market price. Outcome sourced from FIA.

    read Oct 24, 12:22 PM UTC

  • Geminithis market

    United States Grand Prix Winner: Max Verstappen

    This market resolves to Yes if Max Verstappen is officially declared the winner of the Formula 1 Grand Prix originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (FIA), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a driver forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)

    read Oct 24, 02:47 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
United States Grand Prix Winner: Fernando AlonsoGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Alexander AlbonGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Andrea Kimi AntonelliGemini81% NoOpen
United States Grand Prix Winner: Gabriel BortoletoGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Franco ColapintoGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Valtteri BottasGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Oliver BearmanGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Isack HadjarGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Nico HulkenbergGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Pierre GaslyGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Lewis HamiltonGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Arvid LindbladGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Charles LeclercGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Liam LawsonGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Oscar PiastriGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Lando NorrisGemini92% NoOpen
United States Grand Prix Winner: Sergio PerezGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Esteban OconGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Lance StrollGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: George RussellGemini92% NoOpen
United States Grand Prix Winner: Carlos Sainz Jr.Gemini—Open

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As of Oct 24, 04:31 PM UTC