GeminiOpenvenue data is stalePart of a cross-venue question

United States Grand Prix Winner: Charles Leclerc

No96%
Yes5%

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ResolvesOct 27, 2026in 2 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 24, 04:11 AMOct 24, 12:59 PMOct 24, 09:47 PMOct 25, 06:35 AMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market resolves to Yes if Charles Leclerc is officially declared the winner of the Formula 1 Grand Prix originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (FIA), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a driver forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Gemini and Polymarket use different resolution sources and fallback language: Gemini cites FIA/ESPN/Fox/broadcast partner and allows a review process if the result cannot be determined, while Polymarket uses the FIA Final Classification and official Formula 1 reporting, with a specific canceled/rescheduled-after-Nov-1 fallback to Other. These are material only to settlement, not to the underlying question.
  • Geminithis market

    United States Grand Prix Winner: Charles Leclerc

    This market resolves to Yes if Charles Leclerc is officially declared the winner of the Formula 1 Grand Prix originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the official result of the specified sporting event. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (FIA), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a driver forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)

    read Oct 22, 01:07 PM UTC

  • Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?

    This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Nov 1, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
United States Grand Prix Winner: Fernando AlonsoGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Alexander AlbonGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Andrea Kimi AntonelliGemini58% NoOpen
United States Grand Prix Winner: Gabriel BortoletoGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Franco ColapintoGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Valtteri BottasGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Oliver BearmanGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Isack HadjarGemini96% NoOpen
United States Grand Prix Winner: Nico HulkenbergGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Pierre GaslyGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Lewis HamiltonGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Arvid LindbladGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Liam LawsonGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Oscar PiastriGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Lando NorrisGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Sergio PerezGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Esteban OconGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Lance StrollGemini—Open
United States Grand Prix Winner: Max VerstappenGemini57% NoOpen
United States Grand Prix Winner: George RussellGemini96% NoOpen
United States Grand Prix Winner: Carlos Sainz Jr.Gemini—Open

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As of Oct 25, 06:36 AM UTC