New York City vs Chicago: regulation time spread: New York City (-2.5)

Chicago (+2.5)100%
New York City (-2.5)0%

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ResolvesOct 11, 202622 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 9, 03:00 PMOct 10, 01:01 AMOct 10, 11:02 AMOct 10, 09:03 PM

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If New York City FC beats Chicago Fire FC by more than 2.5 goals in the Major League Soccer scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET, based only on regulation time plus stoppage time and excluding extra time and penalties, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the score differential (New York City FC's goals minus Chicago Fire FC's goals) of the specified sporting event after regulation time plus stoppage time only. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event, ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date, including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified, the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Score_Differential_Terms_and_Conditions_4804aecd-e4af-49cf-af57-0c1ba4d4f94d.pdf).

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Gemini resolves at 2026-10-11T18:30:00+00:00 and Polymarket at 2026-10-10T18:30:00+00:00, both representing the same moment (Oct 10, 2:30 PM ET). Polymarket sources mlssoccer.com with fallbacks to Flashscore/Sofascore; Gemini sources league/ESPN/Fox. Both resolve 50-50 if the game is cancelled/not completed within specified timeframes.
  • Geminithis market

    New York City vs Chicago: regulation time spread: New York City (-2.5)

    If New York City FC beats Chicago Fire FC by more than 2.5 goals in the Major League Soccer scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET, based only on regulation time plus stoppage time and excluding extra time and penalties, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to No. The Underlying is the score differential (New York City FC's goals minus Chicago Fire FC's goals) of the specified sporting event after regulation time plus stoppage time only. Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event, ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date, including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified, the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process. View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Score_Differential_Terms_and_Conditions_4804aecd-e4af-49cf-af57-0c1ba4d4f94d.pdf).

  • Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC: spread: New York City FC (-2.5)

    In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for October 10 at 2:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York City FC" if New York City FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Chicago Fire FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
New York City vs Chicago: regulation time spread: New York City (-1.5)Gemini100% Chicago (+1.5)Open
New York City vs Chicago: regulation time spread: Chicago (-1.5)Gemini100% New York City (+1.5)Open
New York City vs Chicago: regulation time spread: Chicago (-2.5)Gemini100% New York City (+2.5)Open

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As of Nov 3, 02:04 AM UTC