US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026: Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?
Price checked at
Prices have not been checked within the last hour.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. two-month net payroll revision published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026 is above -100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The underlying is the combined revision to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes in total nonfarm payroll employment for the two months immediately preceding October 2026, relative to their estimates in the immediately preceding Employment Situation release. The two revisions will be added together, with upward revisions positive and downward revisions negative. Resolution will use the combined revision stated in the initial Employment Situation report covering October 2026; if no combined figure is stated, the two individual revisions will be summed. Any benchmark or seasonal-adjustment effects incorporated into those two monthly revisions are included. Separate annual benchmark figures and revisions to other months are excluded. Subsequent revisions will not affect the outcome.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Nov 1, 10:38 AM UTC