GeminiOpenPart of a cross-venue question

Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Michael Olise

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Oct 25, 12:51 AM UTC

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ResolvesOct 28, 2026in 3 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Michael Olise wins the Ballon d'Or this year, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from France Football, ESPN, and FOX Sports. Read the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fe0b2b64455004337b75fd0622a222d43?alt=media&token=dda6c865-c0e4-4ffe-9a1a-1a76c4a0af90&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Gemini cites France Football, ESPN, and FOX Sports, while Pascal points to a Polymarket market and provides no criteria; these are resolution-method differences for the same fact. Their settlement timestamps also differ (October 28 versus October 31, 2026).

this market
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Michael Olise
If Michael Olise wins the Ballon d'Or this year, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from France Football, ESPN, and FOX Sports. Read the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fe0b2b64455004337b75fd0622a222d43?alt=media&token=dda6c865-c0e4-4ffe-9a1a-1a76c4a0af90&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
read Oct 23, 01:26 PM UTC
Open
2026 Ballon d'Or winner: Michael Olise
The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.
read Oct 25, 12:34 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Lionel Messi	Gemini	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Lautaro Martinez	Gemini	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Lamine Yamal	Gemini	78% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Luis Diaz	Gemini	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Rodri	Gemini	—	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Kylian Mbappe	Gemini	80% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Ousmane Dembele	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Declan Rice	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Bruno Fernandes	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Vitinha	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Jude Bellingham	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Nuno Mendes	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Erling Haaland	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Cristiano Ronaldo	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Bukayo Saka	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Vinicius Junior	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Mohamed Salah	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Desire Doue	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Gianluigi Donnarumma	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Rayan Cherki	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Raphinha	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Scott McTominay	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Marcus Rashford	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? — Phil Foden	Gemini	100% No	—	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 25, 01:01 AM UTC