Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Adam Schiff

No92%
Yes8%

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ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 10Oct 18Oct 26Nov 2

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Adam Schiff has been formally charged with a federal crime after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6JbZL04LYK78sGvg3AbPWn/974e0445a1cef725626f24205bb61c83/Individual_Charged_-_Terms_and_Conditions.docx.pdf).

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. The published criteria differ only in settlement timing: Kalshi resolves at 2027-01-01 15:00 UTC, Gemini at 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC. Otherwise the resolution standard is materially the same.
  • Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

    If Adam Schiff has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.

    read Oct 30, 09:01 PM UTC

  • Geminithis market

    Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Adam Schiff

    If Adam Schiff has been formally charged with a federal crime after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6JbZL04LYK78sGvg3AbPWn/974e0445a1cef725626f24205bb61c83/Individual_Charged_-_Terms_and_Conditions.docx.pdf).

    read Nov 2, 05:55 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Lisa CookGemini90% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — John BrennanGemini78% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Alvin BraggGemini93% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Peter StrzokGemini91% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Ilhan OmarGemini57% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Gustavo PetroGemini87% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Fani WillisGemini85% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Elissa SlotkinGemini94% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Mark KellyGemini94% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Keith EllisonGemini89% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Chris KrebsGemini94% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — James ClapperGemini90% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Hillary ClintonGemini93% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Tim WalzGemini93% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Letitia JamesGemini84% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Hunter BidenGemini93% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Joe KentGemini95% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Mark MilleyGemini94% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Liz CheneyGemini95% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Jacob FreyGemini95% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Barack ObamaGemini96% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Jerome PowellGemini97% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Pam BondiGemini94% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Chris ChristieGemini97% NoOpen
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Joe BidenGemini96% NoOpen

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As of Nov 2, 11:56 PM UTC