GeminiOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Flávio Bolsonaro

Yes56%

No44%

Price checked at Oct 2, 02:31 PM UTC

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Spread2%

ResolvesOct 11, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve on whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Flávio Bolsonaro as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Gemini resolves based on AP reporting, while Polymarket uses credible-reporting consensus and ultimately Brazil’s TSE results, and explicitly includes any second round. They also publish different resolution timing and contingency rules.

Geminithis market
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Flávio Bolsonaro
This market will resolve on whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Flávio Bolsonaro as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
read Oct 2, 02:31 PM UTC
PolymarketOpen →
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
4.8K holders · 21.4K comments · read Oct 1, 02:52 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Fernando Haddad	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Renan Santos	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Ratinho Júnior	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	Gemini	57% No	—	—	—	Open
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Tarcísio de Freitas	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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As of Oct 2, 02:32 PM UTC