Who will win the California gubernatorial election in 2026? — Steve Hilton

No97%
Yes4%

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ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2, 08:20 AMOct 2, 11:59 AMOct 2, 03:39 PMOct 2, 07:19 PM

No recorded data before Oct 2 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the California Secretary of State. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket and PredictFun use AP, Fox News, NBC, with official certification as fallback and a July 31, 2027 confirmation cutoff; Gemini cites the California Secretary of State and has a later stated settlement time. These are resolution-method and timing differences, not differences in the underlying event.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

    This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

    580 holders · 88 comments · read Oct 1, 05:29 AM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

    This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

    read Oct 2, 04:04 PM UTC

  • Geminithis market

    Who will win the California gubernatorial election in 2026? — Steve Hilton

    If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from the California Secretary of State. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

    read Oct 2, 07:16 PM UTC

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As of Oct 2, 07:26 PM UTC