GeminiOpenvenue data is stalePart of a cross-venue question

Fed decision in October? — Hike >25bps

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Oct 25, 12:05 AM UTC

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ResolvesOct 30, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Federal Reserve increases rates by more than 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question

Comparable, not identical. The markets have different listed resolution times (Gemini October 30 and Kalshi October 28), but this does not change the underlying question. Their cancellation and mutually exclusive-outcome rules are materially aligned.

this market
Fed decision in October? — Hike >25bps
If the Federal Reserve increases rates by more than 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)
read Oct 23, 11:07 AM UTC
Open
Fed decision in Oct 2026?: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2026 meeting? Hike >25bps
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
read Oct 22, 07:40 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Fed decision in October? — Fed maintains rate	Gemini	92% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in October? — Hike 25bps	Gemini	93% No	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in October? — Cut >25bps	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Fed decision in October? — Cut 25bps	Gemini	97% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

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As of Oct 25, 12:11 AM UTC