Fed decision in October? — Cut >25bps
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the Federal Reserve decreases rates by more than 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from the Federal Reserve. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. If a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. View the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa739111ce4d14031b8fa642d703f6417?alt=media&token=018dc0da-fca8-43f8-a4c4-6d0dde135f95&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba)
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in October? — Fed maintains rate | Gemini | 92% Yes | Open |
| Fed decision in October? — Hike 25bps | Gemini | 93% No | Open |
| Fed decision in October? — Cut 25bps | Gemini | 97% No | Open |
| Fed decision in October? — Hike >25bps | Gemini | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 12 hours agoDiscussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 25, 01:41 AM UTC