Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — European Union

No100%
Yes0%

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ResolvesOct 9, 202615 days ago

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 4Oct 6Oct 7Oct 9

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to YES if European Union wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. If the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is jointly awarded to multiple people and/or organizations, this contract will resolve to YES for European Union if European Union is one of the named laureates. If European Union is not named as a 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, this market will resolve to NO. The primary resolution source will be the official Nobel Prize/Norwegian Nobel Committee announcement for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, currently scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026. If no 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate is announced by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve based on the latest official statement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, or to NO if no laureate is awarded. This event is not mutually exclusive because the Nobel Peace Prize may be shared by multiple laureates. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/api/v1/file/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F6ab851ab38184aa39ef96a501a3da772).

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Gemini explicitly allows a shared award and specifies the official Norwegian Nobel Committee announcement, with fallback rules if no announcement occurs; Kalshi publishes no comparable detailed criteria. Their listed resolution times differ, which is a settlement-timing difference rather than a different question.
  • Geminithis market

    Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — European Union

    This market will resolve to YES if European Union wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. If the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is jointly awarded to multiple people and/or organizations, this contract will resolve to YES for European Union if European Union is one of the named laureates. If European Union is not named as a 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, this market will resolve to NO. The primary resolution source will be the official Nobel Prize/Norwegian Nobel Committee announcement for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, currently scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026. If no 2026 Nobel Peace Prize laureate is announced by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve based on the latest official statement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, or to NO if no laureate is awarded. This event is not mutually exclusive because the Nobel Peace Prize may be shared by multiple laureates. View the [full rules](https://cdn.builder.io/api/v1/file/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F6ab851ab38184aa39ef96a501a3da772).

    read Oct 9, 07:17 AM UTC

  • Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? European Union

    If European Union wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.

    read Oct 9, 06:39 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)Gemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Save the ChildrenGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)Gemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — International Court of Justice (ICJ)Gemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Mykola Kuleba / Save UkraineGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Dario AmodeiGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — City of Minneapolis and its peopleGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Donald TrumpGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Francesca AlbaneseGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Centre for Humanitarian DialogueGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Narges MohammadiGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Yulia NavalnayaGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Committee to Protect JournalistsGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — International Criminal CourtGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — UNRWAGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Sam AltmanGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Elon MuskGemini100% NoOpen
Nobel Peace Prize winner 2026? — Volodymyr ZelenskyyGemini100% NoOpen

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As of Oct 24, 05:57 PM UTC