Fed decision in October: 50+ bps hike

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ResolvesOct 28, 2026in 26 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 06:25 PMOct 1, 11:43 PMOct 2, 05:02 AMOct 2, 10:20 AM

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

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SourcePolymarket market will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324033

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Limitless, Polymarket, and Pascal list different nominal resolution times; Pascal references Polymarket as its resolution source, while the other two specify the October FOMC statement and Federal Reserve publications. No material difference in the underlying question is apparent.
  • LimitlessOpen →

    Fed Decision in October: 50+ bps increase

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm . The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm . This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    0 holders · read Oct 2, 02:41 AM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    454 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 30, 02:21 AM UTC

  • Pascalthis market

    Fed decision in October: 50+ bps hike

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 2, 10:13 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Fed decision in October: 25 bps hikePascal75% NoOpen
Fed decision in October: 25 bps cutPascal99% NoOpen
Fed decision in October: No changePascal75% YesOpen
Fed decision in October: 50+ bps cutPascal—Open

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As of Oct 2, 10:20 AM UTC