Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume$138.2K
7d volume$970.1K
30d volume$2.4M
Liquidity$377.8K
Spread0%
ResolvesOct 29, 2026in 29 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published criteria differ only in the displayed resolution deadline: Limitless lists October 28, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, while Polymarket lists October 29, 2026 at 03:59 UTC; both resolve from the same FOMC statement and otherwise have no material criteria difference.
  • LimitlessOpen →

    Fed Decision in October: 50+ bps increase

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm . The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm . This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    0 holders · read Sep 29, 10:07 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    280 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 21, 05:29 PM UTC

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Holders280
Held value—
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Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 1% · best ask 1%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296641864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839
  • foodenjoyer18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498
  • pako41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839
  • m00n18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498
  • Mac-Gyver18246296022868501258060085368606280205967114341141276439803424448463050819498

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As of Sep 29, 10:27 PM UTC