Fed decision in October: 50+ bps cut

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ResolvesOct 28, 2026in 26 days

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2, 12:43 AMOct 2, 04:29 AMOct 2, 08:14 AMOct 2, 12:00 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

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Resolution rules

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SourcePolymarket market will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324029

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The venues have different displayed resolution times, but this is immaterial because the relevant October FOMC statement determines the outcome. Pascal cites the Polymarket market and publishes no separate criteria; no material resolution difference is apparent.
  • LimitlessOpen →

    Fed Decision in October: 50+ bps decrease

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm . The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm . This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    2 holders · read Oct 2, 11:43 AM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

    The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

    378 holders · 0 comments · read Oct 2, 09:59 AM UTC

  • Pascalthis market

    Fed decision in October: 50+ bps cut

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 2, 12:09 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Fed decision in October: 25 bps hikePascal76% NoOpen
Fed decision in October: 25 bps cutPascal99% NoOpen
Fed decision in October: No changePascal75% YesOpen
Fed decision in October: 50+ bps hikePascal100% NoOpen

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As of Oct 2, 12:13 PM UTC