PolymarketOpen

Game Spread: Joel Schwaerzler (-3.5) vs Lucas Poullain (+3.5)

Lucas Poullain61%
Joel Schwaerzler40%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$2.4
Spread97%
ResolvesOct 9, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 12:49 PMOct 1, 03:19 PMOct 1, 05:48 PMOct 1, 08:17 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Joel Schwaerzler" if Joel Schwaerzler wins 3.5 or more total games than Lucas Poullain in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lucas Poullain". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Joel Schwaerzler could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Lucas Poullain". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Lucas Poullain vs Joel SchwaerzlerPolymarket60% Joel SchwaerzlerOpen
Mouilleron-Le-Captif: Completed Match: Lucas Poullain vs Joel SchwaerzlerPolymarket53% YesOpen
Lucas Poullain vs. Joel Schwaerzler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket62% Under 2.5Open
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket55% OverOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket56% OverOpen
Set 2 Winner: Lucas Poullain vs Joel SchwaerzlerPolymarket67% Lucas PoullainOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket52% UnderOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket80% OverOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set Handicap: Joel Schwaerzler (-1.5) vs Lucas Poullain (+1.5)Polymarket63% Lucas PoullainOpen
Set Handicap: Lucas Poullain (-1.5) vs Joel Schwaerzler (+1.5)Polymarket76% Joel SchwaerzlerOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set 1 Winner: Lucas Poullain vs Joel SchwaerzlerPolymarket57% Joel SchwaerzlerOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket58% UnderOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket70% UnderOpen
Poullain vs. Schwaerzler: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen

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As of Oct 1, 08:18 PM UTC