PolymarketOpen

Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)

Carlos Alcaraz77%
Matteo Arnaldi24%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$1.6K
Spread32%
ResolvesOct 10, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 10:51 AMOct 1, 01:19 PMOct 1, 03:46 PMOct 1, 06:14 PM

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Matteo Arnaldi, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Matteo Arnaldi." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket53% YesOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket54% OverOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket90% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket79% Under 2.5Open
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket57% OverOpen
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket88% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-5.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+5.5)Polymarket60% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket95% Carlos AlcarazOpen

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As of Oct 1, 07:10 PM UTC