PolymarketOpen

Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi

Yes53%
No48%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$16
Spread87%
ResolvesOct 10, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 10:11 AMOct 1, 12:18 PMOct 1, 02:25 PMOct 1, 04:31 PM

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket54% OverOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket90% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket78% Under 2.5Open
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket57% OverOpen
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket87% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)Polymarket76% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-5.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+5.5)Polymarket61% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket94% Carlos AlcarazOpen

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As of Oct 1, 05:17 PM UTC