PolymarketOpen

Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5

Under51%
Over50%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$10.2
Spread97%
ResolvesOct 10, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 10:51 AMOct 1, 12:28 PMOct 1, 02:06 PMOct 1, 03:43 PM

No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak or played as a match tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with set 2 at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. If the match ends before set 2 is reached, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or play has not begun by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket53% YesOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket54% OverOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket90% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket78% Under 2.5Open
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket57% OverOpen
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket87% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)Polymarket76% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-5.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+5.5)Polymarket75% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket94% Carlos AlcarazOpen

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As of Oct 1, 04:20 PM UTC