Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2028?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Kash Patel must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 98% No | Open |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Nov 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 94% No | Open |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Dec 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 81% No | Open |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Oct 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 55% No | Open |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Apr 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 64% No | Open |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Jan 1, 2029? | Kalshi | 86% Before Jan 1, 2029 | Open |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Jan 1, 2028? | Kalshi | 53% Before Jan 1, 2028 | Open |
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director?: Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 55% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 01:25 AM UTC