PolymarketOpen

Game Spread: Alex de Minaur (-5.5) vs Mariano Navone (+5.5)

Mariano Navone59%
Alex de Minaur41%

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24h volume$2.3
7d volume$2.3
30d volume$2.3
Liquidity$10.5K
Spread4%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 10:51 AMSep 28, 10:36 PMSep 29, 10:21 AMSep 29, 10:06 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Alex de Minaur" if Alex de Minaur wins 5.5 or more total games than Mariano Navone in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mariano Navone". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Alex de Minaur could no longer have finished 5.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Mariano Navone". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
China Open: Completed Match: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano NavonePolymarket52% YesOpen
Set 2 Winner: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano NavonePolymarket60% Mariano NavoneOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket55% UnderOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket56% UnderOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket63% UnderOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket61% UnderOpen
Alex de Minaur vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket67% Under 2.5Open
Minaur vs. Navone: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket65% UnderOpen
Set 1 Winner: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano NavonePolymarket73% Alex de MinaurOpen
Minaur vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket76% UnderOpen
Set Handicap: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Mariano Navone (+1.5)Polymarket58% Alex de MinaurOpen
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano NavonePolymarket80% Alex de MinaurOpen

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As of Sep 29, 10:24 PM UTC