AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | Polymarket | 91% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
94 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- brzi · 9 days ago
Should've bought more Nos then xd
- LA17 · 25 days ago
one or two quarter point hikes won't cause a 2022 style crash
- Rooglish · 25 days ago
Rates will probably be going up. The bubble depends on low rates staying low. One of these days, perhaps when nobody expects it...something will happen.
- LA17 · 25 days ago
the top no holder sold all his shares with a market order. he threw away so much money lol. I'm so mad at myself for not having more limit orders in place
- Rooglish · 26 days ago
Odds just jumped up?? But that's odd because the stock market is also up.
- Rooglish · last month
Sam Altman gave a hint.
- Rooglish · last month
Sam Altman have a hint.
- Rude-Data · 2 months ago
Blud I think you need to switch up the strategy. Nasdaq and S&P closing new ATHs this month
- Rooglish · 2 months ago
It says all events within 90 days. So it has to all be sudden.
- Accalia · 2 months ago
A slight pullback, which is already recovering.
- pika2zero · 2 months ago
Then its kinda stupid to include smci
- anonymous · 2 months ago
Not what the rules say. The 90 day rule means the 3 qualifying events must happen in a 90 day window. Every closing price that is 50% from its all-time high (regardless when that all time high happened) qualifies.
- pika2zero · 2 months ago
Just noticed that smci is down 50% anyway. Now its on soxx to pump from here
- Rooglish · 2 months ago
This bubble is bursting on summer earnings. Looks like this could indeed resolve to yes.
- pika2zero · 2 months ago
From its 2026 all-time high right? Because SMCI was already down >50% from its ATH at time of market creation. They topped in 2024
- Rooglish · 3 months ago
Looking at this again the rules are not favorable for a yes resolution even though the bubble is bursting. Market lower options are far better.
- Unfolded-Pavilion · 3 months ago
I need a december 2027 option
- TonyQ7 · 4 months ago
Fr
- Nali20000 · 5 months ago
What do you mean?
- Wiczus · 5 months ago
Bad rules...
As of Sep 29, 11:00 PM UTC