PolymarketOpen

AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?

No84%
Yes17%

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24h volume$2.4K
7d volume$7.8K
30d volume$8.4K
Liquidity$6.3K
Spread2%
ResolvesJul 1, 2027in 9 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
AI bubble burst in 2026?Polymarket91% NoOpen

Venue activity

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Comments94

Discussion on Predxy

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94 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • brzi · 9 days ago

    Should've bought more Nos then xd

  • LA17 · 25 days ago

    one or two quarter point hikes won't cause a 2022 style crash

  • Rooglish · 25 days ago

    Rates will probably be going up. The bubble depends on low rates staying low. One of these days, perhaps when nobody expects it...something will happen.

  • LA17 · 25 days ago

    the top no holder sold all his shares with a market order. he threw away so much money lol. I'm so mad at myself for not having more limit orders in place

  • Rooglish · 26 days ago

    Odds just jumped up?? But that's odd because the stock market is also up.

  • Rooglish · last month

    Sam Altman gave a hint.

  • Rooglish · last month

    Sam Altman have a hint.

  • Rude-Data · 2 months ago

    Blud I think you need to switch up the strategy. Nasdaq and S&P closing new ATHs this month

  • Rooglish · 2 months ago

    It says all events within 90 days. So it has to all be sudden.

  • Accalia · 2 months ago

    A slight pullback, which is already recovering.

  • pika2zero · 2 months ago

    Then its kinda stupid to include smci

  • anonymous · 2 months ago

    Not what the rules say. The 90 day rule means the 3 qualifying events must happen in a 90 day window. Every closing price that is 50% from its all-time high (regardless when that all time high happened) qualifies.

  • pika2zero · 2 months ago

    Just noticed that smci is down 50% anyway. Now its on soxx to pump from here

  • Rooglish · 2 months ago

    This bubble is bursting on summer earnings. Looks like this could indeed resolve to yes.

  • pika2zero · 2 months ago

    From its 2026 all-time high right? Because SMCI was already down >50% from its ATH at time of market creation. They topped in 2024

  • Rooglish · 3 months ago

    Looking at this again the rules are not favorable for a yes resolution even though the bubble is bursting. Market lower options are far better.

  • Unfolded-Pavilion · 3 months ago

    I need a december 2027 option

  • TonyQ7 · 4 months ago

    Fr

  • Nali20000 · 5 months ago

    What do you mean?

  • Wiczus · 5 months ago

    Bad rules...

As of Sep 29, 11:00 PM UTC