Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?

No95%
Yes5%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread0%
Resolves—

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 21Sep 23Sep 25Sep 27Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. The token must be fungible, meaning all units of the token are identical and interchangeable. Examples of qualifying fungible token standards include: - ERC-20 or compatible/derivative standards on any EVM-compatible chain - SPL / SPL Token-2022 standard on Solana - Native blockchain tokens (e.g., a project's own Layer 1 chain coin) - Equivalent fungible token standards on other blockchains Non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155 tokens will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. The markets differ in primary resolution source: Polymarket uses the most liquid price source, while PredictFun prioritizes information from Variational and credible reporting, though both also specify the most liquid price source for valuation. PredictFun additionally states that the token must be fungible; no material outcome difference is apparent.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

    225 holders · 55 comments · read Sep 25, 11:38 PM UTC

  • PredictFunthis market

    Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. The token must be fungible, meaning all units of the token are identical and interchangeable. Examples of qualifying fungible token standards include: - ERC-20 or compatible/derivative standards on any EVM-compatible chain - SPL / SPL Token-2022 standard on Solana - Native blockchain tokens (e.g., a project's own Layer 1 chain coin) - Equivalent fungible token standards on other blockchains Non-fungible tokens such as ERC-1155 tokens will not qualify for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Variational, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

    read Sep 29, 08:34 PM UTC

Venue activity

Holders—
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 10:25 PM UTC