Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Polymarket | 77% No | Open |
Venue activity
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1,066 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- pink.impala · 20 days ago
fuck ukraine
- SIMOMEGA · 20 days ago
says the guy with neg pnl
- pink.impala · 25 days ago
🤡
- SIMOMEGA · 26 days ago
cmon guys give me another market manip pleaseeee
- Ponno · 29 days ago
FIRST ONE SENDS 1$ GET 20$ HARRY UP
- Shay1 · 29 days ago
Well it’s or tonight or August 31 done🥲
- Hennesseeyyyy · last month
Iran announced airspace clearance!
- GollumGekko · last month
REPORT FROM IRAN: Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport has been closed until further notice.
- Car · last month
boom
- clazzy1 · last month
mike are you done losing?
- SIMOMEGA · last month
what happened to Yes pricing?
- hyper-liquid-xyz · last month
Iran has a 3-4 week ultimatum issued a few days ago for US to surrender to their demands. Iran's Araghchi mocked Trump's economic d-day tweet, he claimed the move was designed to distract from Washington’s “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs”.
- Shay1 · last month
Too much quitting ngl I think we back to war this time fr or ggs and go 100% forever peace type of shit
- Mikelious · last month
IDF HAS ENTERED ALI TAHER RIDGE.
- abdoohl · 2 months ago
Israeli regime gonna force Trump to attack again, rest assured 🤡 hes gonna sit in his food cart and shiver cuz Israelis scare him with Iranians 😂 😂
- Mikelious · 2 months ago
BREAKING: U.S. preparing for a significant escalation of pressure on Iran** The United States is expected to expand its economic and maritime pressure measures against Iran, going beyond sanctions on Iranian companies and entities. The main focus: money-transfer networks and currency exchangers suspected of facilitating the transfer of funds to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s armed forces.
- Shay1 · 2 months ago
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy commander, anonymously to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar affiliated with Hezbollah:* "Do you have a thought for a historic response, if such an attack is launched when no target in our target bank will be immune, whether small or large" ✍️ The Iranian commander is responding appropriately to any attempt to take control of the islands around the Strait of Hormuz, hours after an oil tanker was hit by a drone in the Strait.
- Mikelious · 2 months ago
U.S. President Donald Trump: "Pretty soon, I'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States."
- Mikelious · 2 months ago
According to sources: U.S. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is pushing for renewed strikes on Iran. Cooper reportedly told Israeli officials that he believes resuming the military campaign against Iran could put pressure on Tehran and lead it to change its position in the negotiations.
- Shay1 · 2 months ago
Reports of explosions in the Sirik region of southern Iran* ✍️ Channels affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards are reporting explosions in the region, and claim that this is likely a missile launch towards the Strait of Hormuz - another incident in the sensitive strait, after earlier today it was reported that a US helicopter fired at a ship that tried to break the blockade.
As of Sep 29, 10:23 PM UTC