OpinionOpen

SEBI Finds Jane Street Manipulated Markets by 2026?

No90%
Yes10%

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24h volume$4K
7d volume$4K
30d volume—
Liquidity—
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ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

Resolution Deadline December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM IST. This market resolves to“Yes”if by the resolution deadline, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) publishes or issues a Final Order or Adjudication Order that explicitly concludes that Jane Street: engaged in market manipulation, fraud, or unfair trade practices, or violated the SEBI Prohibition of Fraudulent and Unfair Trade Practices Regulations (PFUTP). This market resolves to“No”if, by the resolution deadline: no qualifying SEBI Final Order / Adjudication Order is issued, or SEBI issues only interim orders, show-cause notices, investigation updates, press statements, or charges/allegations without a qualifying final determination. Edge case: Judicial Overrule. If SEBI issues a qualifying final finding that would otherwise trigger “Yes”, but before the resolution deadline that finding is fully set aside / vacated (i.e., completely nullified on the merits) by either: the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT), or the Supreme Court of India, then the market resolves “No.” Notes for clarity: If an appeal is pending, or the SEBI order is stayed but not fully set aside/vacated, the market still resolves based on whether a qualifying SEBI final order exists by the deadline. If a court/SAT partially modifies the SEBI order but leaves intact a conclusion that Jane Street violated PFUTP / engaged in manipulation, it remains “Yes.” Primary Sources SEBI official order/publication pages, official gazette postings, or SEBI press releases linking to the order. If SEBI documents are not accessible, a consensus of reputable reporting that reproduces the key conclusion and identifies the order type and date.

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Best bid 10% · best ask 38%

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As of Sep 30, 01:41 PM UTC