Which November Swiss referendums will pass?: Will Fireworks Initiative pass?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If Popular initiative For a limitation of fireworks passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option must achieve the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. Failure to meet turnout requirements results in No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Which November Swiss referendums will pass?: Will fair federal taxes for married couples pass? Fair taxes for married couples | Kalshi | 84% No | Open |
| Which November Swiss referendums will pass?: Will AHV VAT financing pass? | Kalshi | 69% AHV VAT financing | Open |
| Which November Swiss referendums will pass?: Will War Materiel Act amendment pass? | Kalshi | 55% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 10:10 PM UTC