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Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death): Donald Trump out before 2027?

No96%
Before 20274%

Price checked at

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24h volume$173.5
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread0%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 8Aug 21Sep 3Sep 16Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

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As of Sep 29, 10:26 PM UTC