Next French presidential election winner?: Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

No99%
Sarah Knafo1%

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24h volume$0
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Spread1%
ResolvesMay 31, 2027in 8 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Sarah Knafo wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. PredictFun specifies resolution by credible reporting or French Ministry of the Interior results, includes an early election, and falls back to “Other” if unresolved by December 31, 2027; Kalshi publishes a May 31, 2027 resolution time and no source or fallback criteria. These are resolution-rule differences, not differences in the event being measured.
  • Kalshithis market

    Next French presidential election winner?: Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

    If Sarah Knafo wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    read Sep 29, 08:07 PM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

    read Sep 29, 06:44 PM UTC

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As of Sep 29, 08:29 PM UTC