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2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?: Will the total 2026 U.S. House turnout be at least 125 million? 125 million and above

No80%
125 million and above20%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread4%
ResolvesMar 31, 2027in 6 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the total vote count in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections is at least 125,000,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. In preferential or ranked-choice systems, the contract resolves based on the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority. If the election is held in multiple phases, the contract resolves on the certified aggregate total. If a runoff forms part of the certified result, it is encompassed. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled, all contracts resolve to No.

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As of Sep 29, 09:33 PM UTC