PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?

No90%

Yes10%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:49 PM UTC

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24h volume$62.7

7d volume$3K

30d volume$6.3K

Liquidity$2.9K

Spread3%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria and source are materially identical; no material venue difference is stated.

Polymarketthis market
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
28 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 10:51 PM UTC
LimitlessOpen →
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027: Below 4.35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026 ).
0 holders · read Sep 29, 07:05 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	Polymarket	95% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?	Polymarket	86% No	$2K	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Polymarket	91% No	$600.4	—	—	Open
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Polymarket	81% No	$353.3	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

Holders28

Held value—

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Comments0

Top holders

Haradwaith23398443666297823094691534632995153781495902461862567707589846959580711217078
SuperTests73797146799209695228166040351154234975731233867926528069095933610378910112457
HDGB73797146799209695228166040351154234975731233867926528069095933610378910112457
df4d8fa4sdf523398443666297823094691534632995153781495902461862567707589846959580711217078
GotGreenWood23398443666297823094691534632995153781495902461862567707589846959580711217078

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As of Sep 29, 09:54 PM UTC