Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes68%
No33%

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24h volume$709
7d volume$2.9K
30d volume$11.7K
Liquidity$3.9K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket settles after the event and specifies a December 31, 2026 fallback if no final ranking is published; Kalshi lists an earlier settlement time and specifies how tied rankings affect payouts. These are resolution-rule differences rather than differences in the event, entity, threshold, or direction.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    66 holders · 2 comments · read Sep 26, 11:20 PM UTC

  • KalshiOpen →

    Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Lionel Messi: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?

    If Lionel Messi is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Ballon d'Or organizers (France Football and UEFA). All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    read Sep 29, 06:31 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Harry Kane finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket98% YesOpen
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket67% NoOpen
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket69% NoOpen
Will Vinícius Júnior finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Bruno Fernandes finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Lautaro Martinez finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Luis Diaz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket97% YesOpen
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket87% YesOpen
Will Pau Cubarsi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket70% NoOpen
Will Erling Haaland finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket91% NoOpen
Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket90% NoOpen
Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Declan Rice finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Achraf Hakimi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Vitinha finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Rodri finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Polymarket64% YesOpen

Venue activity

Holders66
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments2

Best bid 65% · best ask 67%

Top holders

  • ebk.36977275822964727770163913500712455331924031136638105270507329551499726606356
  • KjerstinDellert108344148092703014113967081676852784504655588478314930682261629377150250575610
  • Youngmantryinghisbest108344148092703014113967081676852784504655588478314930682261629377150250575610
  • ymbetzzz36977275822964727770163913500712455331924031136638105270507329551499726606356
  • Socialista108344148092703014113967081676852784504655588478314930682261629377150250575610

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY67%$17.43 days ago
  • SELL33%$303 days ago
  • SELL34%$6.83 days ago
  • BUY66%$13.23 days ago
  • BUY66%$663 days ago
  • BUY64%$11.74 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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2 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • ymbetzzz · 21 days ago

    facts

  • Monthly-Optimal · last month

    There is no way halland will finish in the first 5 save bet

As of Sep 29, 07:25 PM UTC