Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Lionel Messi: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?

Lionel Messi66%
No34%

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24h volume$140.1
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread5%
ResolvesOct 27, 2026in 27 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 12Sep 17Sep 21Sep 25Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Lionel Messi is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Ballon d'Or organizers (France Football and UEFA). All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket settles after the event and specifies a December 31, 2026 fallback if no final ranking is published; Kalshi lists an earlier settlement time and specifies how tied rankings affect payouts. These are resolution-rule differences rather than differences in the event, entity, threshold, or direction.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    66 holders · 2 comments · read Sep 26, 11:20 PM UTC

  • Kalshithis market

    Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Lionel Messi: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?

    If Lionel Messi is ranked top 5 on official final men's Ballon d'Or ranking for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Ballon d'Or organizers (France Football and UEFA). All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    read Sep 29, 06:31 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Pau Cubarsí: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi92% NoOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Erling Haaland: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Fabián Ruiz: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi93% NoOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Michael Olise: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi62% NoOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Rodri: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi67% RodriOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi66% NoOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Harry Kane: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi99% Harry KaneOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Lamine Yamal: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi87% Lamine YamalOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Kylian Mbappé: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi85% Kylian MbappéOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Ousmane Dembélé: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi87% Ousmane DembéléOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Declan Rice: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi84% NoOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Julián Quiñones: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Ballon d'Or 2026: Top 5 Finishers: Achraf Hakimi: Top 5 in the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?Kalshi96% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC