PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland Mayor election?

Yes90%

No11%

Price checked at Sep 30, 12:22 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$11.3K

Spread1%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The 2026 Oakland mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Oakland, California. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Oakland.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus, while Polymarket uses credible reporting and official City of Oakland information if results are ambiguous. They also list different settlement times.

KalshiOpen →
Oakland Mayor winner?: Who will win the 2026 Oakland mayoral election? Barbara Lee
If Barbara Lee wins the 2026 Oakland mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:21 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland Mayor election?
The 2026 Oakland mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Oakland, California. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Oakland.
18 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 12:40 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Brenda Grisham win the Oakland Mayor election?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 12 hours ago

Holders18

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

InterestingUser33485410266072946946816113915067348995987228278697180396388917476909847636891
Ranni3101473861899135061375315105476948466128924987550208682372085826090821891356052
Dr.PNL101473861899135061375315105476948466128924987550208682372085826090821891356052
0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966101473861899135061375315105476948466128924987550208682372085826090821891356052
Oklmntrader101473861899135061375315105476948466128924987550208682372085826090821891356052

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY11%$5.510 days ago
BUY90%$8.111 days ago
SELL9%$0.124 days ago
BUY90%$124 days ago
SELL12%$7.82 months ago
BUY9%$1.92 months ago

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As of Sep 30, 12:34 AM UTC