PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?

Yes59%

No42%

Price checked at Sep 30, 01:05 AM UTC

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24h volume$50

7d volume$2.4K

30d volume$3K

Liquidity$22K

Spread3%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi allows accelerated determination after a media consensus, while Polymarket uses credible reporting and, if ambiguous, official U.S. results; these are source-of-truth differences for the same fact. Their listed settlement times also differ, without changing the election question.

KalshiOpen →
CA-40 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-40 House election? Ken Calvert
If Ken Calvert wins the 2026 CA-40 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 08:24 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
33 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 11:32 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	Polymarket	58% No	$51.9	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders33

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 39% · best ask 48%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296646421742384553114307828161662319874128465336449055550313169687861727731955218
RememberAmalek51974461229191568845326225927715906716951848298252607330001433535054057762395
macrosteaks51974461229191568845326225927715906716951848298252607330001433535054057762395
goingsocial46421742384553114307828161662319874128465336449055550313169687861727731955218
anciano51974461229191568845326225927715906716951848298252607330001433535054057762395

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As of Sep 30, 01:15 AM UTC