PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?

No57%

Yes43%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:12 PM UTC

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24h volume$51.9

7d volume$2.2K

30d volume$2.9K

Liquidity$21.8K

Spread4%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket uses credible reporting, with official U.S. government results as a fallback, while Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projection. Their listed settlement times also differ, but these are resolution-mechanism and timing differences rather than different questions.

Polymarketthis market
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
23 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 12:39 AM UTC
KalshiOpen →
CA-40 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-40 House election? Young Kim
If Young Kim wins the 2026 CA-40 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:18 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Ken Calvert win the CA-40 House seat?	Polymarket	58% Yes	$120	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders23

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 44% · best ask 47%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296680058064583141311952551864255152811409003835973704401584788882759801637848990
goingsocial58582877362544586956335651056571767589550130808419276566457379594408624680864
Spectrum58582877362544586956335651056571767589550130808419276566457379594408624680864
Odd-Relish58582877362544586956335651056571767589550130808419276566457379594408624680864
anciano80058064583141311952551864255152811409003835973704401584788882759801637848990

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY52%$10.93 days ago
SELL48%$9.13 days ago
SELL45%$0.53 days ago
BUY54%$2.73 days ago
BUY54%$4.33 days ago
SELL46%$2.33 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 29, 10:23 PM UTC