PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Jamie Joyce win the CA-12 House seat?

No95%

Yes6%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:12 PM UTC

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24h volume$500

7d volume$517

30d volume$517

Liquidity$27.2K

Spread1%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket resolves after the election based on credible reporting or official U.S. results if ambiguous; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projection. Their listed resolution times also differ, but these are settlement-rule/timing differences rather than different questions.

Polymarketthis market
Will Jamie Joyce win the CA-12 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
13 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 23, 06:50 AM UTC
KalshiOpen →
CA-12 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-12 House election? Jamie Joyce
If Jamie Joyce wins the 2026 CA-12 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 08:03 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat?	Polymarket	95% Yes	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 7 days ago

Holders13

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

Hyperlong49295388668208081260254494778073900200185381147232134105152209692381004856028
SitsToPee98557726164507772080708934355733575130345377778249050091885057710474698461850
zhyfacai98557726164507772080708934355733575130345377778249050091885057710474698461850
Oklmntrader49295388668208081260254494778073900200185381147232134105152209692381004856028
Dr.PNL49295388668208081260254494778073900200185381147232134105152209692381004856028

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Recent trades

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As of Sep 29, 10:21 PM UTC