PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat?

Yes95%

No6%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:03 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$12.2K

Spread1%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi may resolve early after a media consensus, while Polymarket specifies credible reporting and, if ambiguous, official U.S. government/FEC results. Their stated settlement times also differ, but these are resolution-mechanism differences rather than different questions.

KalshiOpen →
CA-12 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-12 House election? Lateefah Simon
If Lateefah Simon wins the 2026 CA-12 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:28 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
18 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 22, 11:35 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Jamie Joyce win the CA-12 House seat?	Polymarket	95% No	$500	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 7 days ago

Holders18

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

Hyperlong77289242519393015416548261597361038279261633771058741469376097803342902081718
thecaricature91894060050914352582269338016604184992081039793395031213746013896702186778415
Dr.PNL91894060050914352582269338016604184992081039793395031213746013896702186778415
i2dt77289242519393015416548261597361038279261633771058741469376097803342902081718
SitsToPee91894060050914352582269338016604184992081039793395031213746013896702186778415

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Recent trades

SELL94%$0.220 days ago
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As of Sep 29, 11:18 PM UTC