PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?

No67%

Yes34%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:31 PM UTC

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24h volume$145.1

7d volume$536.2

30d volume$2.3K

Liquidity$21.3K

Spread1%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. They differ in stated resolution time and source details: Kalshi allows accelerated determination based on a media consensus, while Polymarket uses credible reporting and, if ambiguous, official FEC results. These are settlement-method differences for the same underlying election outcome.

KalshiOpen →
CA-11 House winner? : Who will win the CA-11 House election? Connie Chan
If Connie Chan wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 08:12 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
27 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 21, 05:18 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat?	Polymarket	67% Yes	$151	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders27

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 64% · best ask 65%

Top holders

anoin12375343200393975506320219346320697912230492975296689601609386865806880677659380
macrosteaks68334326565581648932768196259045966024466515758715277424283640466335600693982
0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296668334326565581648932768196259045966024466515758715277424283640466335600693982
anciano68334326565581648932768196259045966024466515758715277424283640466335600693982
kittycat6768334326565581648932768196259045966024466515758715277424283640466335600693982

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Recent trades

SELL64%$12.89 days ago
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BUY35%$22.89 days ago
SELL67%$3.413 days ago
BUY31%$6.213 days ago
BUY79%$413 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 09:15 PM UTC