PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat?

Yes73%

No27%

Price checked at Sep 30, 02:46 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$20.9K

Spread2%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi may accelerate resolution after a media consensus and lists a November 3 election-date resolution time; Polymarket resolves based on credible reporting, with official FEC results as fallback, and lists November 4. These are resolution-procedure differences, not material differences in the event being measured.

KalshiOpen →
CA-11 House winner? : Who will win the CA-11 House election? Scott Wiener
If Scott Wiener wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 30, 02:08 AM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
27 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 28, 06:56 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?	Polymarket	78% No	$20.5	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue yesterday

Holders27

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 63% · best ask 65%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296657007904860049502023244198918141643217044442004777683946206387674876206802375
kittycat67112035258287671416806059192134926948999086785633546282137721997512907008011288
anciano112035258287671416806059192134926948999086785633546282137721997512907008011288
macrosteaks112035258287671416806059192134926948999086785633546282137721997512907008011288
LithiumIon112035258287671416806059192134926948999086785633546282137721997512907008011288

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As of Sep 30, 02:50 AM UTC