PolymarketResolved

Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Yes100%

No0%

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

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Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	94% No	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	98% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	94% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	58% No	$760.4	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	87% Yes	$165	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	86% No	$100	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	93% Yes	$27.6	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 7 days ago

Holders90

Held value—

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Best bid 100% · best ask —

Top holders

aenews274485081117121126961235646401066164006142546150360329176028377716265057703038
troim95079337963127668067032657865562791027094898694786318054791423079042859372136
fElon74485081117121126961235646401066164006142546150360329176028377716265057703038
Burly-Chronometer74485081117121126961235646401066164006142546150360329176028377716265057703038
LornaPredicts95079337963127668067032657865562791027094898694786318054791423079042859372136

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As of Sep 30, 03:49 AM UTC