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Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?

No87%

Yes13%

Price checked at Nov 1, 10:13 AM UTC

Prices have not been checked within the last hour.

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24h volume$1

7d volume$190

30d volume$419

Liquidity$586

Spread4%

ResolvesApr 1, 2027in 5 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Sep 7 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report covering 2026 ranks China as #2 in total art market sales. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, total art market sales refers to both dealer and auction segments. If China is tied with another country for second greatest total art market sales, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market will resolve according to the annual Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report covering the 2026 calendar year. If no such report is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Venue activity

Read from the venue 14 days ago

Holders73

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 88% · best ask 90%

Top holders

PavtheGreat114753641001839675091963867798724095558450350218568675709652890727179415414155
0xa98eb807461aee34ab424905f91453128220daa346646452314947208503294696691064816852089249137612708739263785668029475173722
AMAM1346646452314947208503294696691064816852089249137612708739263785668029475173722
IndipendentLens114753641001839675091963867798724095558450350218568675709652890727179415414155
mew3114753641001839675091963867798724095558450350218568675709652890727179415414155

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL88%$916 days ago
BUY90%$117 days ago
SELL10%$217 days ago
SELL88%$1817 days ago
BUY12%$221 days ago
SELL11%$821 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Nov 1, 02:17 PM UTC