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Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?

No92%

Yes8%

Price checked at Sep 30, 01:05 AM UTC

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24h volume$5

7d volume$5

30d volume$5

Liquidity$202.7

Spread4%

ResolvesDec 1, 2026in 2 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) reclassifies Indonesia as a Frontier Market at any point by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An official MSCI announcement of reclassification will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution, even if such reclassification does not go into effect by the date listed above. Announcements that MSCI is considering or exploring reclassification will not be sufficient to resolve the market. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.

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As of Sep 30, 01:35 AM UTC