Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 days agoBest bid 94% · best ask 95%
Top holders
- alwaysOn114077881433235976012027723972687839770033056296079907449977117179794878950358
- Mithrandiric114077881433235976012027723972687839770033056296079907449977117179794878950358
- yikaiz99285702871532076766861540420317921537390895157103244054227682624115601919324
- machine32199285702871532076766861540420317921537390895157103244054227682624115601919324
- denizz114077881433235976012027723972687839770033056296079907449977117179794878950358
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Discussion on Predxy
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206 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- 12beduins · last month
i think it was a highly relevant comment, i obtain value from it!
- SIMOMEGA · last month
irrelevant
- 12beduins · 2 months ago
J##s be like 😭 😭 not our fault we the victim redrum redrum
- 12beduins · 2 months ago
J**** N**** at it again, always murdering, never their fault
- 12beduins · 2 months ago
The IDF claimed the target of the strike in Ansar, which killed seven people, was Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, an alleged battalion commander in the Radwan Force unit of Hezbollah. The IDF also stated that others who died were "terrorists", and that Ali Samir's family was injured, since he "used them as a human shield" by sheltering them in his "headquarters". The strike destroyed a residential unit.
- Schmegegi-Teple · 2 months ago
not a lot of English speakers in this market I see 🙊
- SIMOMEGA · 2 months ago
israeli colonists killed a young man like a year ago, they also want to do the same to his father, so "never harm innocent" is wrong, both sides are wrong
- SIMOMEGA · 2 months ago
?
- ArieLethal · 2 months ago
Am Yisrael chai
- ArieLethal · 2 months ago
Forget it, they support terrorism, they don't understand. They are brainwashed people who support people who murder and harm innocent people. Israel is the best country morally, it protects its citizens.
- ArieLethal · 2 months ago
These are terrorists who killed children and innocent people.
- ArieLethal · 2 months ago
You are lying, Israel is not harming anyone, you see the truth on the networks and everything they published about Israel was fake news. I live here and we never harm innocent people. All the terrorists around us use their citizens as human shields. Israel tries to protect its residents and even residents in enemy territory who end up harming us but we are human beings good people do not harm innocent people and if they are harmed it is because Israel is fighting against terrorists who are using people and children as shields. And our people are being killed. You are brainwashed, look at the people who support terrorism. They don't even know what they are saying. You ignore the reality that they are killing innocent citizens in Israel and people here. On October 7, it was Palestinian citizens who abused and harmed innocent citizens. You are simply a bad person. If you talk like that, we want peace. They want to kill us.
- SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago
let them cook
- NOIZYUV · 3 months ago
People don't understand that there's literally a 0% chance for a full withdrawal in 2026
- NOIZYUV · 3 months ago
You gonna lose your money buddy
- arsenelupin · 3 months ago
JUST IN: President Trump tells Israel to withdraw its forces from Lebanon and Syria, Axios reports.
- SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago
shut up if u have nothing relevant to say
- 12beduins · 3 months ago
Israels pure evil, pure pure evil, nasty ppl, murderous ppl, horrible horrible horrible!
- 12beduins · 3 months ago
Yesterday, the IOF killed the director of a kindergarten school, Professor Aspirinza Ghendour, along with her mother, their maid, and a Syrian worker, in an airstrike on Nabatieh in southern Lebanon.
- SIMOMEGA · 3 months ago
Fars?
As of Sep 29, 08:24 PM UTC